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Ncube holds 2026 growth forecast at 5 percent and rules out a supplementary budget

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube told Parliament the approved 2026 budget will see the country through to year-end, keeping the growth forecast at 5 percent as inflation averages 4.2 percent.

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Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube has told Parliament that Zimbabwe will not need a supplementary budget this year, keeping the government’s full-year growth forecast at 5 percent as he presented the 2026 Mid-Term Budget and Economic Review on Thursday.

Ncube said the budget approved last November remained adequate to cover planned programmes and projects through to the close of the year. Both NewsDay and the Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported the minister ruling out a mid-year top-up — a departure from a run of years in which supplementary budgets became routine and were blamed by economists for feeding inflation.

The 5 percent forecast represents a slowdown from the 8.3 percent expansion recorded in 2025. Ncube attributed that to the high base of the previous year rather than to weakening activity, telling MPs that growth this year would rest on firm mineral commodity prices, a favourable agricultural season and reforms intended to cut the cost of doing business, including the rationalisation of licences, fees and permits.

On prices, Ncube said annual inflation had averaged 4.2 percent over the first seven months of 2026. That is, he said, the first time in more than three decades that Zimbabwe has recorded an average in single digits. Inflation in the local unit had peaked at close to 96 percent in July 2025 before falling sharply through the second half of that year.

Mining remains the sharpest end of the growth story. Gold output is forecast to rise to 55.6 tonnes this year from 50 tonnes in 2025, and Ncube said export earnings from lithium products grew strongly over the first half.

He also set out the risks. Preparations were already under way, he said, for a possible El Niño-induced drought during the 2026/27 agricultural season — a prospect that would bear directly on the agricultural performance underpinning this year’s numbers.

For households and businesses, the practical significance of Thursday’s statement is what it does not contain. No supplementary budget means no fresh injection of unbudgeted spending in the second half, which is the mechanism that has repeatedly undermined currency stability in the past.

Sources: NewsDay, NewZimbabwe.com, Xinhua.

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BUSINESS

Lithium overtakes platinum as Zimbabwe’s mineral exports double to US$4.7 billion

Lithium sales reached about US$2.16 billion in the first nine months of 2026, pushing mineral export earnings above US$4.7 billion, the Minerals Marketing Corporation says.

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Zimbabwe’s lithium exports have overtaken platinum group metals (PGMs) as the country’s biggest mineral earner outside gold, according to figures from the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ).

MMCZ general manager Nomusa Moyo told a briefing on Wednesday that lithium sales reached about US$2.16 billion in the nine months to 30 September. ZimLive and Reuters, whose report was carried by Mining Weekly, both carried the figures. Total mineral sales, excluding gold, doubled to about US$4.74 billion from US$2.35 billion in the same period last year, ZimLive reported.

ZimLive said lithium made up 45.6 percent of mineral sales and exceeded PGMs by about US$430 million. PGMs earned about US$1.73 billion over the period.

Spodumene concentrate was the largest contributor at about US$1.8 billion. Petalite brought in about US$155 million and lithium sulphate, a processed product, about US$190 million. Reuters reported that spodumene prices rose 283 percent, which it identified as the main driver of the increase.

Moyo said the figures show that processing minerals locally is starting to translate into export earnings, ZimLive reported. China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt began exporting lithium sulphate from its Zimbabwe mine in April after building what Reuters described as Africa’s first lithium salt plant, and about 33,000 tonnes had been exported by the end of September, according to the MMCZ.

Reuters added that most of Zimbabwe’s lithium goes to China, and that Chinese firms dominate mining and processing after investing about US$2 billion since 2021.

Sources: ZimLive, Reuters via Mining Weekly.

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IMF approves second review of Zimbabwe’s Staff-Monitored Programme as inflation stays in low single digits

The IMF says Zimbabwe’s economy remains resilient, with ZiG inflation at 3.7 percent in September, but flags a shortfall in protected social spending.

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The International Monetary Fund has approved the completion of the second review of Zimbabwe’s 10-month Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP), the Herald reported on 8 October, citing an IMF statement issued on Wednesday.

The IMF said the economy remained resilient, with activity expanding in the first half of 2026 and annual ZiG inflation at 3.7 percent in September. It said the exchange rate was broadly stable and that the external position benefited from strong mineral exports, favourable commodity prices and resilient remittance inflows. Fiscal revenue also exceeded expectations.

The approval follows a staff-level agreement announced on 17 September after an IMF mission led by Wojciech Maliszewski visited Harare. At that stage the IMF said the agreement was subject to approval by IMF management, which has now been given.

The Fund said programme implementation through end-June was strong. All quantitative targets and structural benchmarks were met, as were all indicative targets except one: the floor on protected social and priority spending. The IMF attributed that shortfall to persistent implementation bottlenecks and called it a significant concern.

The IMF projects growth of 5 percent in 2026, slowing to 3.5 percent in 2027 because of the expected effects of an El Niño-related drought on agriculture. It said risks are tilted to the downside, particularly if the drought is more severe or commodity and energy prices rise.

The Herald said the review is expected to strengthen Zimbabwe’s track record as it works to clear external arrears and re-engage with the international financial community. The IMF described the programme as supporting that agenda and said the 2027 Budget should be anchored in prudent revenue and financing assumptions.

Sources: IMF statements of 17 September and 8 October 2026, The Herald.

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NRZ returns 100 wagons to service as Mutapa chases US$115m rail loan

Zimbabwe’s railway has recommissioned 100 refurbished wagons and three locomotives under a US$2.8 million partnership with Zimasco, while a far larger Afreximbank facility is negotiated.

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The National Railways of Zimbabwe has brought 100 refurbished high-sided wagons and three locomotives back into service under a US$2.8 million partnership with ferrochrome producer Zimasco, as the state operator pursues a far larger financing package to rebuild its fleet.

The rolling stock was commissioned in Harare on Thursday by Transport and Infrastructural Development Minister Felix Mhona, who described the arrangement as a model for reviving idle railway assets without an immediate call on the treasury.

“This partnership exemplifies a win-win financial engineering model. By funding the overhaul of idle wagons in exchange for freight charge offsets, Zimasco has secured a reliable supply chain route to international markets,” Mhona said.

Under the deal, Zimasco financed the refurbishment of idle stock in return for freight charge offsets and dedicated capacity to move chrome and ferrochrome towards the regional ports of Beira and Maputo.

Mhona said a functioning railway was essential to Zimbabwe’s stated goal of reaching upper-middle-income status by 2030, describing rail as the cheapest and safest way to move bulk cargo. He argued the investment would ease logistics bottlenecks and spare rehabilitated roads the damage caused by heavy trucks.

The commissioning forms part of a wider recapitalisation effort led by the Mutapa Investment Fund, the sovereign wealth fund to which NRZ was transferred.

Fund chief executive John Mangudya said the strategy was aimed at restoring the railway’s commercial viability. Among the planned interventions is a US$115 million facility being negotiated with the African Export-Import Bank, which would fund 10 new locomotives, 315 wagons and the rehabilitation of key infrastructure.

Government is also pursuing track and signalling upgrades and a resource-backed arrangement with China Railway International Group.

Mhona said US$10 million had been secured for the Chicualacuala–Plumtree and Machipanda–Harare lines through tripartite cooperation with Mozambique and Botswana, and that cooperation with South Africa on the North-South Corridor had been revived.

NRZ has been hollowed out by years of under-investment, and freight volumes remain a fraction of what the network carried at its peak in the 1990s. Mhona urged other mining companies, farmers and fuel importers to take up similar partnerships.

Sources: NewZimbabwe.com, 263Chat, Sowetan, MINING.COM, Business Day.

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